Our Analytics 10 march — 12:10

Appointed revolution is cancelled (Before the rally)



Election is close at hand. The event is grandiose from the point of view of determining the vector of the country's strategic development for seven years now. But the internal political life of Azerbaijan is limited to a verbal, if not to say, abusive squabble of politicians, who has gone headlong into the semi-virtual life of ordinary bloggers of modern times. After all, what is the purpose of political struggle? First of all, in the struggle for power. It's not about the value struggle and the clash of civilizational approaches. It is rather a mission of enlighteners and neo-encyclopaedists forming socio-political views and a value system. Politicians start from worldview systems, trying to gain the support of the people and society, come to power and realize their dreams and aspirations of millions. In fact, these are well-known truisms, historical basics and political science axioms that are not subject to the slightest doubt and conceptual revision.

But in Azerbaijan, opposition politicians actually self-detached themselves from reality, went into exile to the Net, choosing an abusive argument in their relations with the authorities. A vivid example is the politician Ali Karimli. The question is: how is Ali Karimli different from protest bloggers? And what does he want? Popularity on the web? Or success in the struggle for power? How does he and the political force led by him are going to change the fate of Azerbaijan, if they boycott the main political event?

Ali Karimli has for several years already refused to fight for power. The question is: why doesn't the main opposition politician enter the fierce struggle for power in the country?

Ali Karimli complains that fierce dictatorship is rampant in Azerbaijan, all political freedoms are abolished, and the people have been deprived of their natural right to express their will. Let's believe the leader of the party (!!!) of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, and, following his logic, we will try to answer the question: why did the opposition politicians abandon the struggle for power? Has Azerbaijan abolished elections, be it presidential, parliamentary or local? Or maybe the parliament is dissolved? Are all forms of mass protest actions forbidden?

Karimli believes that the elections are not canceled, but they are falsified. Power, they say, steals the votes of voters. Let's admit! But what prevents the self-confident politician Ali Karimli, who constantly declares all-around popular support, to organize rigorous and systemic monitoring of the elections, to prove falsifications and to call on the people to protect their votes. Who prevents?! Won't the people stand upright and fight for their choice?!

Karimli says that the repression is hindering. Let's assume. However, repression works against a narrow social group, a small group of supporters, no police baton is able to stop the blind raging protest of millions. Where and in what country did the armed military and police forces manage to stop the sea of popular discontent and the outburst of outrage? We will not go into the historical parallels and reflections, just turn to the fresh example of the recent Arab spring that shook the entire Middle East. None of these countries had elections or political freedoms. However, the explosion of popular indignation and the protests of millions put an end to the long-standing stable regime of the Arab rulers.

Here it is the wave of people raised by the Arab spring

Unlike Mubarak's and post-dictatorship Egypt, or Libya, whether it was the times of Gaddafi, or the current era of confusion and timelessness, no political force had the right to protest. The People's Front Party has this right. And it is bestowed on Ali Karimli by the Constitution and the President.

Karimli with his party can conduct multi-million protest rallies daily in the center of the capital, in the Yasamal district near the governmental buildings. And today, in a few hours, Karimli and his allies in the opposition National Council are going to hold another opposition rally. And I confidently declare that in a few hours in the central square will meet no more than five thousand traditional supporters of the opposition.

Just a few months ago, these protest actions gathered no more than a couple of thousands of inveterate and tired supporters, making up the loose social base of the Front from the period of Meydan. If the people, or a part of the people, or a small part of them, are dissatisfied with the government and support Karimli, then what prevents them from coming to the sanctioned rally, to challenge the "dictatorship" (as the frontists assure) and enter into a last and decisive battle? However, this motive also formed the basis for the decision of another opposition organization REAL, whose leader is still in prison, to abandon the rally tactics.

This is the most important question that Karimli goes around in every inconvenient case. He complains about the political incompetence and immaturity of the masses. What do the classics of Marxism say? The revolutionary situation is created and implemented not by the people, but by the revolutionary forces! And the so-called pseudo-revolutionary unprincipled circles, blinded by ordinary human malice, from the underground, cannot form this situation even in the light of many burning social problems in the country.

And this is just an Azerbaijani protest

But what can we say about the failed rallies and protests, if the Popular Front Party is not able to nominate its candidates in the elections even in a third of electoral districts. Nobody is there! No one left! Some of the supporters are disappointed, the others went to power, and with the angry leader there were only those who have nowhere else to go. There are neither party structures, nor commissions, nor district committees.

There is a complete alienation, by and large the leader of the PFPA - the phantom party, which unified the poorly educated provincial people with low political and social culture, went into the Internet, opening the rostrum, from which only insults the power every day. Karimli is not capable even of fundamental investigations and burning criticism in the spirit of the popular in Russia Navalny. Only the curses of an evil loser. And this the most absolutist, as Karimli declares, power standing by itself, not noticing a shadow of protest, without feeling any threats, without thinking about the hypothetical danger, looks at the empty political space.

The question is different: Karimli is not capable of organizing a systematic and effective political struggle. How pitifull sometimes looks the imposed leader of the scattered protest! He quite openly declares with a serious expression: "We do not have an office!" And this is in the age of social networks and the organization of the revolutionary masses through innovative technologies! No office, no revolution!

"We are not allowed on TV!" Karimli still loudly declares, explaining his refusal to participate in the elections. And this is in the age of the natural extinction of the TV-box and the strong emigration of viewers to the Internet space! All these arguments, characteristic of the conditions of the struggle of the 1990s, cause irony in the age of the all-conquering and all-wiring Internet, for they are groundless, fictitious and terribly far from the theory and foundations of political struggle in the new millennium. It's not so difficult to face the truth: the people do not follow and will not follow Ali Karimli.

It did not follow him in 1995 and 2000, when the authorities literally dragged him by the ears through a five percent barrier in the parliamentary elections. It did not follow him in the rainy for the authorities last fall in the midst of economic and banking crisis. In the days of a chance for Karimli, as if from heaven, the opposition had the most real chance to fully mobilize a multi-polar protest electorate. Alas, a pathetic little group of dissatisfied people came to the square. Karimli tried to use the latest political technology: the tactics of a snowball of the growing protest crowd. In vain, the rallies were on the downward. The people did not come out and did not follow. Fiasco! And again a collision: Karimli had to literally crawl into the Net, continuing to play the illusion of resistance and imitation of virtual non-acceptance. A failure can always be attributed to the all-conquering march of a hated dictatorship. You see there is no office, no TV channel, websites are blocked, and, finally, an orange rose of revolution is arrested: Gezal Bayramli herself...

And in the light of this shameful defeat of the cause of the permanent revolution, Karimli now and then gives reasons for scandals in the secular chronicle. Permanent information appears in the media about some real estate of the leader of the people's militia or his new Jeanne d'Arc, Madame Gultekin, about dizziness from personal success in the fashionable areas of London: his son drinks in a well-known pub, or his wife goes shopping in an expensive boutique and undergoes an expensive plastic surgery, then a new foreign car, then cool bodyguards... And everywhere there is a foul smell of money, the nature of which is unknown to us all.

Ali Karimli still believes in TV

After all, with this money, which Karimli receives in some embassies in private meetings, it would be possible to open and untwist not one means of the opposition agitprop - Internet TV, new sites, create more than one district committee... Remember how the Bolsheviks did: closed the St.Petersburg Pravda, opened the Vienna Pravda, closed the latter, opened the Siberian Pravda... (And meanwhile, the leader of the world revolution modestly fed on small sandwiches in a Swiss library!) And where do the party dues and other financial assistance go, reserved for the cause of the party and the revolution? On plastic operations, boutiques and foreign cars? And for an imitation, if not to say a parody of political struggle, limited by vain and populist appeals in the facebook plane and expressed in self-deprecating praise of the leader-narcissist!

Ineptness, lack of principle, lack of character, shamelessness... Look at the features of the political portrait of Karimli himself. He leads only a personal, mundane game-war. No more, just self-assertion, personal revenge, parasitism on the status of an uncompromising and implacable fighter in the hope of a system decline. There are no high ideas, there is no claim to political ideology. There is no war of the worlds. Some existences and complexes. And anger, against himself and the whole damned world. The case is lost, it's the end of the story. And not just for Ali Karimli. For the whole generation of the Meydan, lost at the crossroads of history.

That's what the opposition political life of today's real Azerbaijan has turned out to be: an empty square, protests riffraff dissatisfied and lost among its broken idols, purple capless leaders who have found peace in their own luxury, and the people grown wise with experience grinning at this disgraceful masquerade...

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