Our Analytics 24 august — 14:29

Pashinyan's confidential report got to Azerbaijan (Their report - our analysis)

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BY AZERI DAILY ANALYTICAL GROUP

The new government of Armenia has prepared a report entitled 'Armenia Transformation Strategy 2050.' Approved on July 26 of this year, the preliminary report, intended for expert consultation, is listed as 'confidential.' However, despite all the secrecy, one of the copies of it came into the hands of Azeri Daily editorial office. We will not go into details of how the secret document of official Yerevan came into the hands of a media of the country that is at war with Azrmenia, but consider its essence.

Even a superficial acquaintance with the 'Armenia Transformation Strategy 2050' clearly demonstrates the apparent resemblance to the 'Strategic Roadmaps for the National Economy and Main Sectors of the Economy,' approved by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev in the end of 2016. Of course, each state should formulate a conceptual strategy for its long-term development, including the economic system. Armenia during the reign of the clan of the Karabakh field commanders could not have such a strategy by definition, because the entire Armenian economy resembled unprofitable subsidised subsistence farming dependent on irrevocable investment infusions of the diaspora. The Armenian economy absorbed the investment capital of the diaspora on the principle of anthropogenic plunder of national capital. In general, the primitive command and administrative model of the Kocharyan-Sargsyan duumvirate, expressed in obtaining funds for the maintenance of the Armenian state with the aim of embezzlement, predetermined the fate of the occupation regime of field commanders.

However, the new revolutionary government of love, born of the revolution, should have filled the gaps of the commanders: and here came to light a concocted thin pile of drawn over (it is really drawn over more than written over) with modules paper.

'Sevan boys' have big ideas

Of course, it is very funny that official Yerevan needed to give a confidentiality stamp to the 31-page colourfully designed abstract. 'Sevan boys' in the Armenian government took up the solution of the a priori impossible task: to determine the vector of development of the world system for 30 years ahead! That is, the mediocre theorists of the revolution of love decided to invent the solution of a problem that the leading think tanks of the USA and China would not do well. With the transience of the modern world, the uncertain world order, the permanent global energy crisis and transformation to new energy sources, the metamorphosis of the global economic system, where the roles and places of even transnational companies are deformed, how can one determine the place and development of a small, orphaned and destitute country 30 years in advance?

And the 'Sevan boys' also resorted to some kind of complicated graphics, streamlined and unspecific figures, using a non-universal curve... The young Armenian government got confused, because the people were waiting for the speedy implementation of the fabulous and enchanting future promised at the Theatre Square. Pashinyan is in a hurry, not realising that the economy does not like this and does not forgive.

The authors of the document indicate the four phases of the economic development of their country. From the present country of natural resources, Armenia should become an industrial country by 2030. Economic growth over this period is provided by the manufacturing and construction industries, the development of infrastructure, which are fuelled by the repatriation of the necessary labour force.

Stop! The country's natural resources are clearly not enough to build an industrial building on this basis, and the repatriation of labour force is even more absurd taking into mind the horrific statistics of the emigration of Armenians from their unhistorical homeland, and especially in the absence of the desire of citizens who left Armenia to return to the forgotten country.

Further more. Over the next decade (2030-2039), Armenia should become a country of knowledge, which implies a decrease in the share of conventional sectors of the economy in favour of knowledge-based ones.

Authors need a country with the highest number of entrepreneurs, startups, applied scientists and patents for every million people, as well as 3-8 global companies based there. And, finally, by the middle of the century, authorities see Armenia exponential, when there is no longer a simple arithmetic development, but an accelerated geometric one. The goal is 5-15 exponential companies based in Armenia; about 170 thousand new jobs in the exponential sector of the economy; Armenia's entry into the top three world leaders in the number of exponential companies for every million people. And then comes the search for megagoals, of which the most modest are safe Armenia, mass repatriation and integration, the famous, respected and hospitable Armenia, connection with world Armenians, a cashless and shadowless economy. These are mega targets, each of which is easy to challenge and ridicule.

Pashinyan's blunder in Khankendi

Let's return to the program of the Azerbaijani government. The Strategic Roadmap for the National Economy and Main Sectors of the Economy, developed by the Azerbaijani government, totals more than 600 pages! And if the lightweight Armenian strategy looks forward 30 years, then the Azerbaijani one is designed until 2025, which reflects the reasonable approach of the authors of the Azerbaijani document. And it is not by chance that in our documents all the details of the country's development are clearly described with an indication of the tasks set, the timing of their implementation and the responsible departments. And the apparatus of the presidential aide for economic affairs controls the process of their implementation. And no privacy! All this can be easily found on the corresponding official sites. Azerbaijan's 'Strategic Roadmaps for the National Economy and Main Sectors of the Economy' was highly appreciated by international institutions, which, apparently, inspired Pashinyan to develop a strategy for Armenia as well.

Pashinyan in Khankendi: 'Every barber knows that!'

According to the Armenian government, this strategic roadmap went through several levels of preparation and consultations, including the government and relevant ministries, discussions with factions of the National Assembly, consultations with the president and prime minister. During the preparation of the strategy, ten meetings of the Reform Committee and five meetings with the Prime Minister were held over the three summer months. As a result, this very 'Das Kapital' of the Armenian neo-Marxists was born. The basic principles of strategic transformation, as conceived by their authors, are ambition as opposed to planning, comprehensive transformation, increasing value, doubling the speed of development, and not catching up. Words alone. Beautiful, we admit, and even smart, but completely empty and lightweight, not backed up by any program justification.

World Armenians do really have a lot of ambitions, no doubt. But Pashinyan outdid all his predecessors in this sense. Thus, his strategy sets another crazy goal: in the next 30 years, Armenia should enter the top thirty leading countries of the world in terms of living standards, competitiveness in the field of innovation, education, healthcare, finance, defence... Next, even more fantastic indicators, with a brief summary of which we would like to acquaint our readers. It's just that we would like first to ask one more question from the category of Armenian logic: on August 5, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan spoke publicly in the 'capital' of the unrecognised 'Nagorno-Karabakh republic' in the framework of the VII Pan-Armenian Games. And why did he need to keep the document secret, if only 10 days later its essence was revealed, one thinks the facts will tell.

If Pashinyan could reach the level of Iraq devastated by war

This, by 2050, Yerevan intends to bring the population of Armenia to 5 million people, create 1.5 million jobs, solve the unemployment problem for 2.5 million people and eradicate poverty. To turn Armenia into an industrial country, increase GDP by 15 times, have at least 5 high-tech companies worth more than $10 billion, and 10 thousand working startups. It is necessary to increase the average salary 7 times. According to the index of combat readiness of the army, enter the top twenty countries. Have one of the ten most effective intelligence services in the world. Ensure 100% accessibility of health services and twenty-fold increase funding in this area...

All this, of course, causes Homeric laughter even among the closest friends of Armenia. After all, in the neighbouring country the population is declining every year, people leave it because of unbearable living conditions. But this cannot stop Pashinyan. He intends to increase funding for science and education by 20 times, increase the number of tourists in Armenia to 15 million people a year, and declare the country's national football team a prize winner of the European and even world championships. And at the same time to win 25 Olympic gold medals and the title of world chess champion.

And if not everyone can get acquainted with the classified document, then Pashinyan's speech with his over-ambitious appeals did not leave anyone indifferent. And no matter how officials try to convince the population of the omnipotence of the people's revolution, the more intelligent supporters of Pashinyan simply mutter that this is not a concrete plan, but the formation of a strategy that has to be adjusted in the most complicated process of implementation. Meanwhile, experts say that increasing the population of the republic to 5 million people, even at the expense of migrants, is another impossible task. This requires deep transformation, the explosive growth of all key areas of life. In the meantime, judging even by the official statistics of the Armenian state itself, the migration balance is negative, and it is not known when this trend will be broken.

That's how Armenians live in 2019

And it would be nice to remind Pashinyan that according to the forecasts of the United Nations Population Fund, the population of Armenia will decrease by 150 thousand by 2050. Believe me, this leading and authoritative international organisation is much more serious than the newly made Armenian government of love. Chicago boys calculate better than Sevan boys. Even the former head of the Central Bank of Armenia Bagrat Asatryan laughs at Pashinyan's mind-blowing strategy, regarding the Pashinyan's plan as utopia, because the pace of development of the republic does not allow it to achieve a fifteen-fold GDP growth in 2050. At best, GDP will quadruple, long-term development is a building constructed stone by stone.

But even a 15-fold increase in GDP over 30 years, which Pashinyan dreams of, will raise this poor country with a volume of up to $186 billion only to the current levels of Romania, Algeria and Iraq, the latter devastated by war. In addition, for a country with the projected population of 5 million, this means 37 thousand dollars per capita, which corresponds to the current indicators of Lithuania and Estonia. And after 30 years, after all, they will also be better than Armenia, right? So, in order to satisfy his ambitions, even theoretically, Pashinyan will need to increase the GDP by a factor of 100, probably. Otherwise, the ends will not meet. But reaching so high, apparently, even he feels somehow uncomfortable.

Between Khrushchev and Gorbachev

And now let us focus on another controversial postulate of the 'Sevan boys.' Will Yerevan be able to increase the combat readiness of the Armenian army so that the Armed Forces involved in the war with Azerbaijan are included in the twenty most powerful armies in the world? To realise this plan, Armenia will certainly need a budget that exceeds the current one by at least 15-20 times. Where to get the money from, because the current military budget of Armenia is only 609 million dollars. By the way, official Baku, which does not burden itself with such a dazzling prospect, even today spends 5 times more money on defence. But the corresponding potential and growth rates of the Azerbaijani economy are still much higher. Statistics is a stubborn thing! And if over the past 30 years Pashinyan's predecessors could not equal their development to the neighbouring country, then who can guarantee that in the next 30 years he and his followers can do it?

The fabulous landscape of the mass tourist pilgrimage to the mountainous Armenia does not stand up to criticism. Pashinyan surprises with his other nonsense: it turns out that 15 million tourists will visit Armenia annually? Even Turkey, with its vast territory, resort regions, developed infrastructure and strong economy, as well as a branchy and traditional tourism industry, can hardly digest twice as many tourists. What can Armenia offer to foreign tourists? Drowning in the mud Masis? Maybe the beggar Ijevan? Bald mountains, broken roads, banal Sevan, Caucasian folklore and mixed cuisine? Or maybe a war in Karabakh? What 15 million tourists? And will anyone in Armenia believe in Pashinyan's sandy mirages?

Pashinyan's populist and confidential but entertaining program document surfaced in Stepanakert (Khankendi) because the new Armenian government is aware of the growing discontent of the grey crowd, disappointed by the unrealised, scattered dreams. Months fly by, a year has passed, but Pashinyan can offer nothing but the illusory hope to his country.

His program is reminiscent of Khrushchev's assurances that the Soviet people will live under communism in 20 years. Yes, and of course, one recalled Gorbachev's promise about a separate apartment for each Soviet family by the year 2000. However, decades later, the peoples whose heads were turned around with illusionary programs lost not only their apartments, but also their vast country. Pashinyan also trumpets on the satirical Armenian radio about a monthly salary of 5,000 euros for each Armenian, and a pension of 2,000 euros for the elderly. Better than in Germany itself!

Almost Khrushchev's theses

Armenian countdown - below the plinth

Let us leave the discussion about the fabulous prospects for Pashinyan and his 'reform team,' it is better to turn to a real and non-fictional retrospective. Analysing Pashinyan's colourful album, another summary suggests itself: it turns out that Armenia, in 2018, passed the peak of 2050 promised by the prime minister. Thus, the government's economic revolution program assumes that the country's GDP will grow by 5% annually. In the list of megagoals of the prime minister the GDP will almost double in 20 years, and 15 times in 30 years, which today seems to many an unrealistic task. Now we illustrate what has been said with digital macroeconomic indicators. Over the past 20 years (1997-2017), Armenia's GDP has increased by 6 times, and GDP per capita by 8 times. It follows that Pashinyan's predecessors, the antediluvian field commanders, without American diplomas and without solving any 'megagoals for 30 years,' over the past 20 years, and with three-fold over-fulfilment (!!!) implemented the current revolutionary program of the government!

By the way, over the same years, the minimum wage increased 55 times (from 1000 Armenian drams to 55 thousand), and the average wage increased 13 times, and the average pension increased 11 times, and budget revenues 9.8 times, and lending to the economy - 53 times, and foreign trade - 7 times. But earlier it was easier to achieve multiple growth, since it was necessary to start from scratch or from a minus mark. Now it will be much more difficult to maintain the same pace, so this growth will have to be called an economic revolution.

Pashinyan dreamed that economics was magic, although both before Marx and after him theorists understood that this was a rather complicated science with its theoretical and practical laws. Pashinyan needs, first of all, to determine the priority areas for the development of his country, and then develop real ways to achieve them. However, there is a huge stumbling block in the way of Pashinyan: no scientific and practical ideas and conclusions of the new authorities of the country can be realised without investment flows. True, Yerevan intends to increase foreign direct investment growth from the current $540 million to $26.2 billion. But who will invest billions in a country at war with the neighbouring and more developed Azerbaijan, which closed the way for Armenia in all the regional and international geoeconomic projects, knocked it out of the regional transport and communication system? Without resolving the fundamental problems with its neighbours - Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia's romantic dreams of a happy future will be broken into the stones of harsh political reality. And the foreseeable future of Armenia in 30 years will resemble the cover of this almost student essay by Pashinyan - hungry embittered huts go to palaces magnified by corruption... And revolutions will shake this country over and over again!

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