Our Analytics 5 november — 12:47

Revolution in government's head, and ruin in opposition's minds (Leading article)



The crushing defeat of the October strategy of the national democrats, who announced the emergence of a new popular movement in Azerbaijan, caused sharp criticism on the part of the representatives of the liberal camp, especially the REAL leader Ilgar Mammadov. Opponent of Ali Karimli in the struggle for the minds of the protest electorate justly criticized the national democrats, who tried to pass the usual protest of party activists for a broad popular and even revolutionary movement. The main thesis of liberals is the absurdity of assumptions regarding the degeneration of social discontent of a part of society into a grandiose political protest in the country. The liberals' perception of recent attempts at groundless upheavals in society also reflects the prevailing political worldview of representatives of the powers that be about the recent efforts of the national democrats to achieve eventless political survival.

National democrats and liberals clashed over a philosophy of political survival

National democrats continue to parasitize on the eternal syndrome of a political revolution in the country. And this time A. Karimli makes a serious political and technological mistake, as the liberals point out. The artificial and purposeful inflation of protest political moods in society had to be exactly at the climax of the personnel upheavals and perturbations in the ruling elite.

The promised change of political elites is taking place in the government, and society with great hope and expectation is watching the regeneration of the ruling elite, the long-awaited change of the president’s team and the implementation of the acceleration and renewal program, published immediately after the presidential election in 2018. Moreover, the president himself is at the forefront of critical mood. In recent days, Ilham Aliyev has appeared in the guise of a chief critic of his former government, which did not fulfill its obligations to the state, society and the president. The president exposes the bureaucratic class to moral ostracism, instilling in the young guards called up to power the idea of selfless and honest service to society and voters.

The rating and popularity of the president are rapidly growing, and he continues to more and more harshly voice the most acute socio-political problems in the country. The president is perceived as a source of fundamental changes in the economy and society.

At the forefront is the president himself

The point of bifurcation has come as a moment of truth. Frankly, this is not the best time to popularize the ideas of the anti-government popular movement, moreover, by cesspool methods.

However, Karimli, contrary to sound logic and the foundations of political forecasting and planning, calls for improving the rally tactics of the national democrat opposition. The other part of the opposition - the Musavatist-centrists, right-wing liberals and even network informals are very skeptical about the likelihood of resuscitation of rally tactics.

Karimli still expresses his conviction that it is a rally wave that can cause narrative hostility between the opposing camps, bring political confrontation in society to the necessary radicalization, as well as involve new classes and strata in the longing social struggle, which will transform the narrow political struggle into a global system the opposition of society to government.

The amateurish understanding by the national democrats about the theory of revolution and the state (in Lenin's terms) does not allow them to understand the obvious truth that a revolution can be caused only if the law of correspondence between productive forces and production relations is violated. By and large, there is no critical and deep rethinking of the economic basis in the program of the national democrats. There is a false interpretation of a revolutionary coup definition. This is not about a radical breakdown of production relations in society, because Karimli does not offer anything to the protest electorate, confining himself to replicating and imposing populist anti-oligarchic (anti-capitalist) and anarchist slogans.

On the eve, Karimli has even turned to the protest forces with a new ridiculous appeal. The leader of the revolutionary movement sincerely admits that he has become entangled in the maze of the illusionist revolution and is not able to find a new methodology for mobilizing the protest masses in the struggle against government. Karimli shifts responsibility from political organization to lumpenized and declassified, in a word, doomed strata.

Karimli is entangled in the maze of revolution

The leader of the national democrats asks the people for new recipes for organizing further actions. That is, in complete contradiction with the Marxist teaching, Karimli believes that the revolution is caused not by political organizations, but by society. Karimli only expects to lead the outbreak of protest, relying on a pure chance, a chaotic action of individual groups or, at best, good luck. At the same time, the leader, who claims to be the dominant force of the national revolution, does not heed historical truth - the very same political party must be engaged in organizing the social classes that should form the core of the revolution! In Karimli’s view, the revolution is just a spontaneous natural process that arises as a result of political and social contradictions that flow into turmoil. And only after the emergence of this spontaneous process, the revolution should call on a political organization alienated from the process itself, which should rightfully lead the revolution! Thus, according to Karimli’s logic, a revolutionary organization can wait for decades, or even centuries, for a natural storm! It is anti-scientific, illogical, anti-historical! Do you now understand why, since 1993, the national democrats have not created a single real problem for the Aliyevs' government?

Furthermore, the national democrats long for a second instrument of pressure on government. And this tool, in their view, is even more hyperbolic, effective for weakening and undermining the political and economic system in Azerbaijan. The national democrats are calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan.

A distorting mirror of sanctions

The question is, what crimes against humanity have the Azerbaijani government committed to deserve special punitive measures on the part of the international community? For example, in our world, sanction is identical to a policy of pressure against Iran and Russia. Excuse me, but if our southern neighbor seeks equal and fair coexistence in one planetary political system by developing its own nuclear weapons, then Russia has faced accusations of annexing the territories of a member state of the Council of Europe. Is Azerbaijan really working towards uranium enrichment? No! Or maybe official Baku makes territorial claims to its neighbors? Also no! Then what?

The national democrats are calling for sanctions against Azerbaijan because of the systematic violation of universal freedoms and political rights. Based on these criteria, the Western world was obliged several decades ago to impose sanctions on half of the civilized world...

Even during the triumph of liberal ideas, the West punished only those countries in which people were crushed against the walls of lamentation. Let's say Cambodia, Myanmar or Sudan...

Is Kerimli and his comrades-in-arms, who have been given many stadiums and arenas for free expression of will, take the liberty to pedal the parallel between Azerbaijan and Myanmar? Or Eritrea?

The call for sanctions against one’s own country is extrapolating helplessness, cowardly betrayal, lack of a clear and definite vision of overcoming obstacles to the establishment of a true, rather than primitive popular movement.

In the months leading up to the 2020 parliamentary elections, the national democrats and liberals still indulge in tedious and meaningless discussions around the shabby theories of the revolution, indulging in futile reflections on the inevitability of historical retaliation - a political coup. And all these reflections at the faded monitors occur far from the main source of power - the Azerbaijani people. People again went to the TV box. In the government, an epochal generational change and historical transformation take place. The revolution from above captured the masses. Society is aware of the truth - a revolution in the government is taking place in the minds. But in the opposition there is still only ruin in the minds...

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