Our Analytics 4 october — 14:17

Will Armenia have enough resources for a big war? (Our comment)

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BY ELNUR MAMMADOV, AZERI DAILY AUTHOR

To conduct active and large-scale hostilities, and even more so along the entire perimeter of the large Karabakh front, as is known, large resources are needed. These are human resources, communication, food, and medical resources... And of course, financial resources. Will Armenia, which is planning to wage a full-scale war against Azerbaijan, have enough of all these resources?

Against the background of hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the national currency of this country, the dram, began to fall in price, according to the Armenian media. At present, in Armenia, 1 US dollar is equal to 481.66 drams, which is 0.39 drams more compared to the previous day. The dram also depreciates in relation to other currencies. Thus, the euro exchange rate rose by 0.5 drams to 565.55 drams, the pound sterling rose by 6.76 drams and reached 624.12 drams. Only the Russian rouble fell in price by 0.12 drams, amounting to 6.16 drams, but there are completely different reasons for that.

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Meanwhile, revenues to the state budget are also decreasing. Since the beginning of this year, about 49 billion drams less taxes have been collected than it was predicted at the beginning of this year. By the way, this was stated by the Chairman of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia, Eduard Hovhannisyan. According to him, this difference will grow over time. True, at the same time, without batting an eye, he assured the public of his country that 'the estimated level of execution of fees by the government in the context of the consequences of the epidemic is under control and is manageable.'

But we have long been accustomed to such pretentious, to put it mildly, discrepancies between Armenian politicians. They talk about long-suffering, but they wage aggressive wars, ruthlessly killing women, old people and children. They talk about the need for peace negotiations, but at the same time they do not cease to provoke the opposite side with massive shelling. And now they are talking about a controlled tax collection process, the level of which is falling rapidly. But taxes are the only source of replenishment for the already leaky budget of this country. It turns out that vigilant government control is aimed only at increasing the country's budget deficit.

Who and how will pay for the war unleashed by them against Azerbaijan, it seems, they do not think there. However, the long-suffering ones were never worried about such a 'trifle' as the lack of funds. They always received modern weapons worth billions of dollars completely free of charge, some of which, they say, were even sold to third countries. Yes, at a time when Azerbaijan bought the same weapons from Moscow for billions of dollars earned by its own labour, it was supplied to Armenians free of charge. Rather, in a 'long-term loan on mutually beneficial terms.' Also, Yerevan received timely intelligence and other valuable recommendations and instructions for free, which gave it invaluable advantages.

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But times have changed. With his unpredictable actions and statements, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has changed the political palette in the region not in his flavor. He managed to do the seemingly impossible. At the same time, he alienated Moscow from himself, and was unable to get closer to the West, which also historically supported Yerevan in all its provocative endeavours. In addition, Turkey has become actively involved in the Karabakh intrigue. And Baku, having secured the strong support of Ankara and the neutrality of the rest of the players, finally managed to demonstrate on the battlefield who is capable of what.

The battle, however, continues. And its outcome depends not only on cash injections. Much has been written about Moscow's assistance, so we will not focus our attention on this. Another issue of no less importance in the current situation is mobilisation. Immediately after the start of the battle, the Armenian government announced the introduction of martial law, and for the first time in the country's history, it announced a general mobilisation. In turn, due to the aggravation of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan announced a partial mobilisation.

But, as you know, the transfer of the armed forces to a military regime should be carried out in coordination with the transfer to the military track of the entire economic complex of the country. And bringing the armed forces to combat readiness must be should be carried out in coordination with the mobilisation of troops. At the same time, mobilisation requires the expansion of logistic structures, which must uninterruptedly provide the troops not only with weapons, but also with fuel, medicines, food... How are the sides prepared for this?

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It is, of course, too early to sum up the results. But the Armenian troops, as noted by the Armenian media, already have a shortage of vehicles and even food. The Azerbaijani side has not raised such problems yet. Of course, in Yerevan they are aware that the level of training of the personnel called up for service also raises more questions than answers - for reservists there is not even a sufficient amount of modern weapons. Not to mention storage bases for weapons and equipment. And there is every reason to believe that a sufficient supply of funds for conducting long-term hostilities - ammunition, food, fuel, uniforms, medicines, etc. - has not been created in Armenia.

Meanwhile, a long war requires a huge amount of various material and technical means. In this regard, Azerbaijan can rely partly on its own economy, and partly on strategic foreign exchange reserves for their import. And brotherly Turkey and Pakistan, as well as the oil Islamic community, promise any help that Baku asks for. But where and to what extent Armenia will be able to receive similar assistance is an open question. Therefore, all the advantages are on the side of Azerbaijan today. And this is not only a capable ally, ready to provide assistance of any kind. But also the quantitative and qualitative superiority of the armed forces over the enemy. And in general, the position of the world community consists in the assertion that Baku seeks to return the occupied territories and restore the territorial integrity of the country, contrary to Yerevan's wishes at all costs to preserve the occupation regime in the occupation zone not recognised by international organisations.

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