Our Analytics 9 october — 17:39

Success of Ilham Aliyev's doctrine: 'War in exchange for territories' (First results of September war)



So, it looks like we are approaching the final stage of the September Karabakh military drama. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan requested an armistice. And he expressed his readiness to sit down at the negotiating table.

Azerbaijani special operation to force bellicose Armenia to peace can be considered completed. Briefly, I will note - not to a truce, but to peace.

The world has never seen such a flexible Pashinyan

For all 12 days of the active September Karabakh war, Pashinyan's rhetoric surprised with its softness, helpfulness and benevolence. The former bellicose warlord, armed with a pompous uncompromising struggle for punctuation marks after the word 'Karabakh,' has reincarnated into the image of a cautious and scrupulous politician who carefully selects not only every necessary phrase, but also a cautious word. And instead of a sword, a white flag appeared in Pashinyan's hands. Barely noticeable, but the flag is in his hands. After all, the Armenian prime minister disappeared behind the broad shoulders of Robert Kocharyan. With the legitimate Armenian government still alive, the leader of the opposition snatched the sword from the hands of the lost prime minister. In recent days, Kocharyan was personally involved in the supply of weapons to Karabakh instead of the Chinese trash produced in Mao's time and destroyed by Azerbaijani drones and artillery. A day later, Karabakh was under the strict control of very polite Russian-speaking people. The battalions of mercenaries too politely shifted the executive vertical of Pashinyan and his gauleiter, taking all the power into their own hands. And moreover, it was so polite that a hunt for 'Soros traitors' was announced in Armenia.

Pashinyan doomed himself with his own hands and reached a dead end with his own feet. Armenia, pregnant with Saakashvili, had a miscarriage. The sung melody of the revolution of love was suddenly cut short by a tragic requiem. Armenia was put in place, returned to the starting point of the 'impregnable outpost.' Force majeure has prepared a farce for Pashinyan.

Polite men terminated Armenia's pregnancy

Pashinyan again calls on Azerbaijan for a peaceful dialogue without preconditions and demands. The capitulating tone of the Armenian prime minister crosses all ethical boundaries: Pashinyan has resigned himself to the old format of negotiations and no longer counts on the representation of the puppet regime. But a few weeks ago, in the spirit of a warlord, Pashinyan rejected any format of negotiations with Azerbaijan, pointing out to official Baku the only way - preliminaries with the Karabakh gauleiter.

With the appearance of polite men in Karabakh, Pashinyan's protege, Arayik Harutyunyan, also disappeared from the pages of the Armenian media. After all, the Armenian prime minister undertakes to conduct negotiations on the basis of the Helsinki principles and unchanging resolutions of the UN Security Council.

However, Azerbaijan will continue negotiations with the new Pashinyan on the basis of the unambiguous demand of President Ilham Aliyev - Armenia must present an exact timetable for the withdrawal of the occupation troops from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Without working out this schedule, Azerbaijan will have to leave the diplomatic salon and return to the battlefield. And Pashinyan realises the reasonableness of this demand, otherwise he would not zealously ask Baku to return to the negotiating table.

Azerbaijan has to achieve the implementation of a difficult task - capitalising military successes in the diplomatic field. Zakir Hasanov passes the baton to Jeyhun Bayramov. And now the militant and offensive spirit of the Azerbaijani Army is transferred to the arena of diplomatic battles.

Baton passed to Jeyhun Bayramov

Thus, a few hours later, the first round of talks between the heads of the foreign ministries will begin in Moscow. The tough Bayramov and the evasive Mnatsakanyan could lay the foundation for future peace. Diplomats are starting from scratch. For Azerbaijan has managed to change the balance of forces and the military configuration in the theatre of operations.

The main success of the September war, of course, was the change in the status quo, expressed in the new concept of Ilham Aliyev - 'war in exchange for territories.' If the negotiations fail - and this will happen if Armenia refuses to compromise and does not leave the occupation zone in accordance with the Madrid principles - Azerbaijan reserves the right to return to the proposed concept of 'war in exchange for territories.' In a matter of days, the Azerbaijani Army razed to the ground the entire military infrastructure and logistics in the occupation zone and in Nagorno-Karabakh itself. And it will take Armenia years to revive its destroyed army and military potential. And for Armenia, vegetating in a poverty-stricken state, with a collapsed economy, finished off by the coronavirus crisis and the September war, this is hardly a feasible task: again they will have to get into debt.

Ilham Aliyev broke the status quo

In addition, during the September war, Ilham Aliyev proved that he was ready with dignity to repel external pressure from the world's leading political forces, including the United States and the European Union. For many years, Armenia has been reassuring itself with a false stereotype about the unwillingness of Azerbaijan, which has managed to attract billions of dollars in investments, to risk its well-being for the sake of an unpredictable war. Ilham Aliyev broke this far-fetched cliché. If Armenia does not make tangible concessions and compromises, Azerbaijan will resume hostilities. Indeed, unlike unquestioning Armenia suspended by polite little men, Azerbaijan has not limited its political sovereignty. We have friends, but no commitments.

Now it's up to Armenia. It has to choose between war and territories...

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