Our Analytics 17 october — 21:52

Pashinyan, through intermediaries, requested truce from Ilham Aliyev ... On Azerbaijan's terms! (Leading article)



The devastating defeat of the Armenian Army in the Fuzuli district will go down in the history of the second Karabakh war as a turning point in the 30-year-old Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation. The vast majority of experts express an identical point of view in a brief summary of one of the most merciless wars of our time: an occupying, but poorly armed, Soviet-style army of the 1970s was opposed by an army of fearless soldiers equipped with high-tech weapons of the 21st century, a disciplined, well-structured, well-coordinated army of fearless soldiers of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces.

Armenia faced a modern army

The fearless and courageous soldier broke the false and unjust stereotype imposed on Azerbaijanis since the turbulent and hurricane 1990s. Evil tongues, which are always more terrible than pistols, assured that Azerbaijanis did not know how to fight. Gripped by unbridled chaos, torn apart by internal quarrelsome passions in the struggle for power, Azerbaijan during the first Karabakh war looked from the outside at the military failures of the politicised militia, mobilised more to carry out coups than to defend Karabakh. One after another, the districts left, one after another self-appointed presidents were displaced, accelerating our national defeat. The state was on the verge of disaster and collapse. Azerbaijan's unitarianism was saved only by the grandiose political experience of Heydar Aliyev, who for the first time in the post-Soviet space managed to build a clear executive vertical and recreate blurred state foundations.

Heydar Aliyev did not manage to complete the work he had begun. However, the consolidated political elites supported the choice of the people: a young, European-minded politician and statesman, the successor to the founder of the Third Azerbaijan Republic, Ilham Aliyev, came to power. The philosophy of political continuity put forward by Heydar Aliyev confirmed the viability of a successful model that could give impetus to the development of post-Soviet society. Predictability of political power and social development. In addition, the West, disappointed in permanent destabilisation and explosive revolutionary waves, has determined its main priorities in our region: stability over democracy. Bush, Obama and Trump have repeated it over and over again.

The successor to the founder of the Third Republic, Ilham Aliyev, designated the dominant in the national agenda: Karabakh

Having conditioned the rapid growth of the Azerbaijani economy, primarily due to a multi-vector energy policy, Ilham Aliyev identified the dominant of the national agenda: the return of Karabakh and the restoration of the country's integrity. Karabakh became the basis of the new ideological platform of the authorities. Karabakh is a cornerstone in the national system of values. Ilham Aliyev became the most uncompromising and strong-willed Azerbaijani politician in the Karabakh settlement. Not an inch of land! This slogan was being voiced by the president for about seventeen years. Ilham Aliyev, expressing the aspirations and mentality of the whole society, realised that for the revival of the national spirit and the implementation of further development strategy, the country must restore its integrity. How to build a future with a people with a wounded sense of national dignity?

After the Kazan meeting, Ilham Aliyev realised that there was nothing to discuss with the field commanders

Most likely, after the Kazan summit, Ilham Aliyev finally saw that the Karabakh field commanders who seized power in Armenia had no intention to make any compromises and propose a concept of a just peace. The provincial political upstarts demanded from Azerbaijan, which, as they believed, was finally defeated, only one thing: unconditional surrender. 'Peace in exchange for territory' -- this concept of clever and wise Israeli diplomacy turned out to be alien to the short-sighted and stupid Stepanakert boys to recognise all the danger for them of the fertile geopolitical configuration built by Aliyev for a decisive breakthrough. Ilham Aliyev demanded a just peace, threatening a Patriotic War.

In their political planning and forecasting, the narrow-minded Karabakh clique of Kocharyan and Sargsyan, and then the dilettante Pashinyan and the 'Soros boys,' who had grabbed hold of the Yerevan Olympus of power, a priori excluded a military option for the development of the situation. Armenian politicians believed in what they themselves wanted to believe. Believing that Ilham Aliyev would not risk a multi-billion dollar investment climate, oil and gas industry and established statehood for the sake of a difficult-to-predict military campaign. And even the transformation of the world order with its prerogative of the 'right of force' did not return the narcissistic Pashinyan's power to a cruel reality. They have lost that sense altogether. The world has changed, and with it all the main regulators of the Helsinki system of stability were knocked out from the global system of relations. In addition, international law -- an atavism from the Cold War era -- went into oblivion along with bipolarism. In any case, both international law and the new world order were in favour of the strengthened Azerbaijan.

Ilham Aliyev did what he had to do. A politician of this magnitude could not miss this historic chance. Azerbaijan, and even Ilham Aliyev himself, might not have had a second chance. Ever.

So, the battle for the city of Fuzuli, the citadel of the plains of Karabakh, became a turning moment, a new starting point in the second Karabakh war. Azerbaijani Army crushed the last resistance of the occupying army and launched a large-scale offensive. Everywhere, in all trenches, Armenian soldiers are raising white flags. The Armenian rearguard fled. Forged in fierce battles in the first days of the war, Azerbaijani military units easily take up combat positions, villages, fortified areas. A situation has arisen in which the Azerbaijani authorities can barely keep up with the successes of the brave army on the battlefields.

What's next? In his speech today, President Ilham Aliyev outlined the main goal for the entire Azerbaijani world: the shrine, the city of Shusha. Prior to the occupation, the primordial Azerbaijani city founded by Panah Khan was the main focus of Azerbaijani folklore and culture. And the chroniclers are a thousand times right in their assertion, saying that in the national consciousness of Azerbaijanis Shusha prevails over Baku. This city is the spiritual capital of Azerbaijan.

Shusha: the ancient spiritual capital of Azerbaijan

And there is no doubt that in the coming days Azerbaijani Army will liberate the city of Shusha, fulfilling the dream of several generations, who glorified love for and separation from spirituality, a lost dream. In any case, for almost 30 years, Shusha has become a sweet mirage for every Azerbaijani.

What is Armenia capable of doing in the coming days in order to stop the victorious march of Azerbaijani troops? In a trembling voice, the official representative of the Armenian Defence Ministry, Artsrun Hovhannisyan expressed all his grief and despondency today, reproaching the youth of Yerevan for desertion. Hovhannisyan believes that by wastingly waving flags in the rear, the youth is bringing Azerbaijan's victory closer. Desertion and decadent mood flourish in Armenia.

After all, the revolution of love completely changed the state structure in the country of filed commanders. Armenia, which chose the path of the so-called 'people's street democracy,' abandoned the political mobilisation system. Armenia has returned to the era of the seething voluptuous Theatre Square with the delusional idea of 'miatsum.' However... This idea, just like in the 1990s, is supported by a rusty antediluvian Kalashnikov assault rifle, which is aimed at ghost drones. Suddenly Armenia woke up and realised that the time machine had carried Azerbaijan far ahead. And a sneaky terrorist shot from around the corner will not save the smouldering organism of Karabakh separatism.

Armenia reaps the fruits of revolution

For Pashinyan, with his air of freedom, it is quite difficult to build a violent recruitment with the use of anti-retreat detachments. It was this scheme of forcible coercion into the war in Karabakh, which was actively used in the early 1990s by the then Minister of Defence of Armenia, Vazgen Sargsyan, who was subsequently shot in parliament, and ensured the success of the Armenian army, which stopped the breakthrough of Azerbaijan in the late summer of 1992.

And in this war, the Armenian generals pinned great hopes on the deep defence in the fortified areas on the line of contact and in the plains of Karabakh, believing that the Azerbaijani troops would get bogged down in battles with these echelons and the active offensive would drown. However, the unprecedented courage and fearlessness of the Azerbaijani soldier broke the plans of Tonoyan's generals, just as they tore the notorious 'General Ohanyan's line' to shreds in April 2016.

Armenia has nothing to oppose Ilham Aliyev's military armada

Armenian army is doomed. The current government of Armenia will not be able to unleash a partisan war. The absolute majority of the Armenian population fled to Yerevan. And the entire military infrastructure in Karabakh has been completely destroyed. Now Armenia must oppose Azerbaijan with a well-trained regular army. And it's gone. Poorly organised and weakly armed battalions remained on the limitless and extended front line. Arms supplies are running out. All countries bordering Armenia, including Iran, have closed their airspace for the transportation of weapons. Moreover, the Armenian economy, crushed by the coronavirus crisis and internal oligarchic wars, is on its last legs.

What is left for the Pashinyan government to do?

I end this article with the most important information received by our editorial office from government sources. Pashinyan, through intermediaries, requested negotiations from Ilham Aliyev. The Armenian government is ready for a dialogue with Azerbaijan on the terms of the Karabakh settlement put forward by Ilham Aliyev.

Pashinyan lost Karabakh, now he has to save Armenia...

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