Our Analytics 12 november — 16:57

Azerbaijan must say goodbye to France (Our reaction)



'In these difficult times, France reaffirms its friendship with the Armenian people, taking into account the close human, cultural and historical ties that connect us with Armenia. We are on the side of Armenia in this dramatic context,' French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said yesterday.

And the words he uttered should not surprise anyone. The head of French diplomacy spoke on behalf of the political establishment, on behalf of the Elysee Palace and the entire 'deep state,' for which the pro-Armenian position remains one of the pillars of foreign policy.

Le Drian did not notice approximately million refugees expelled from Karabakh. France is always close to Armenia

In fact, he only repeated what his boss, President of the Fifth Republic Emmanuel Macron had said a day earlier: 'Work must be done urgently to determine the parameters of a long-term political settlement of this conflict, which would ensure the preservation of normal conditions for the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and the return tens of thousands of people who left their homes. At this difficult moment France is on the side of Armenia.' As if there were no 1 million Azerbaijanis on these lands. Macron noticed only some Armenians.

Why does Paris need active intervention in the South Caucasus and where exactly France's national interests are buried in Armenia, no one in Paris will really explain to you. Talking about 'the closeness of human, cultural and historical ties that connect us with Armenia' is in favour of the poor. The attempts of French diplomacy to save Yerevan from defeat have failed, and now it is necessary to console the influential local Armenian diaspora at least by the fact that their historical homeland will not be left without help.

Moreover, a humanitarian catastrophe is impending in Armenia: the heating season is approaching, for which the country is traditionally not ready, a food crisis is looming ahead, and the budget loss of about three billion dollars for the war is not even a hole, but the most natural window into the abyss of a financial crisis.

Paris has more than enough internal and external problems that need to be resolved, and at this moment they give themselves another headache in the form of the upkeep of Yerevan: where is the logic? At the same time, it is completely clear to everyone that sticking one's hand, as Macron and Le Drian do, into an Armenian hollow, means playing the lottery, akin to Russian roulette: either you will be bitten by a tangle of snakes lurking there, or your hand will stumble upon a foul-smelling substance, from which it is difficult to wash off, and the smell will persist for a long time.

Macron kneels in front of the graves of soldiers who killed Azerbaijanis in Karabakh

But ordinary logic is incompatible with the rules of the great game played by Paris. But it is precisely within the framework of these rules that everything is understandable: both the Armenophilia of the French establishment, and its willingness to break off relations with Azerbaijan, and its readiness to help Yerevan. Nothing should be spared to help one's dearest friends.

Moreover, at the expense of large French capital. Who, in general, does not care about Yerevan. But the 'Turkish factor' that has manifested itself in the current victorious liberation campaign of the Azerbaijani Army, as well as the changes that have arisen after it in the South Caucasus, cannot but worry.

The Armenophilia of the French establishment, which Macron and Le Drian are forced to support, for which they are ready to do much, is the flip side of Paris's struggle against the expansion of Ankara's international influence. And Yerevan is a weapon in this Franco-Turkish conflict, which is acquiring a global character, from Africa to now the South Caucasus.

And any success of Turkey is a cut in the ratings of Macron and his team, all the more so obvious during the victorious liberation campaign of Azerbaijan. The fact that from the side of Baku it was completely legitimate, fully complied with the UN resolutions, is unambiguous, but the fact that the Armenian ruling clique was wrong all around is of little concern in Paris.

This is the war of Paris against the Baku-Ankara coalition

France sees this as its own defeat, which the Baku-Ankara coalition inflicted on it, and therefore, no less than the most nationalist Armenians, yearns for revenge. To such an extent that both Macron and Le Drian are expressing, at first glance, blatant nonsense about 'defining the parameters of a long-term political settlement of this conflict' within the framework of the previous format of the Minsk Group, which proved its complete incapacity and the pro-Armenian position of its individual, if one may say so, 'co-chairs.' Under a completely different world order and under different geopolitical circumstances, France, having sworn an oath of cold-blooded neutrality, received the status of a co-chair of the Minsk Group. And in general, for many years, at least outwardly, it observed the rules of decency. But with the beginning of the second Karabakh war, the Elysee Palace openly took the position of Yerevan. In some ways, Macron was even more radical towards Baku than Pashinyan himself. What kind of co-chairmanship and cooperation with Baku can we talk about after that?

And about 'the need to take into account the interests of Armenia': just as enchanting. Since when does the resolution of the conflict require taking into account the aggressor state, the occupying state? But it is for others, that Armenia is an occupier and an aggressor. For France it is an instrument of struggle against Turkey and Azerbaijan, the same 'son of a bitch, who is our son of a bitch.' Pretty shabby, got a kick, but not yet lost its usefulness for Paris.

That is why the French will now caress him in every possible way and help with licking his wounds. Up to the delivery of their weapons on credit, because what is left of the Armenian army today is pure laughter. After all, the main goal - the use of Armenia against the Ankara-Baku coalition - has not disappeared anywhere: both in Paris and in Yerevan now they will live with thoughts of revenge. Well, the Armenians will then work out the French care, where will they go, they think in the Elysee Palace. Without even suspecting the forms that the Armenian 'gratitude' to its ally can take...

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