Our Analytics 15 november — 12:43

France is disrupting ceasefire in Karabakh (Main topic)

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BY EYNULLA FATULLAYEV

Once, one of the former French diplomats in Baku, in one of the frequent conversations over a cup of coffee, as it is customary to call it, a meeting without neckties, realising the deep problems of his country, bitterly expressed the sacramental phrase: 'If the USSR had not collapsed, France would have become the sixteenth Soviet socialist republic!'

And the problem is not only in the ossified system of public administration and social responsibility of the government, which ultimately led to serious destruction in the economy and budget deficit. But also in the demographic collapse, blurred value system, degradation of civil institutions. France, which has now turned all the remaining power of its former political greatness on a revived Turkey, has itself become a sick man of Europe.

France is the decline point of post-Christian liberal civilisation

In recent decades, France has been torn between domestic political and economic problems and the pursuit of active geopolitical influence. But from the former imperial grandeur only the splendour of the Elysee Palace and the poverty of the reservations of the former colonial peoples in the centre of Paris remained. France's imperial influence tapers like Balzac's shagreen.

After the decline of Gaullism, from decade to decade, from year to year, France slipped into the status of an ordinary European average, keen on competing for leadership on the Western European continent. The political and then economic decline reached such a bifurcation point that during the Hollande period, EU leaders started talking about fiscal irregularities by France.

Macron and his progressives rushed into the Elysee Palace on a revanchist wave with Trump's populist slogan 'Let's make France great again!' True, the Bonapartist attempt to restore the grandeur of Paris, which is worthy of a Mass, turned into the greatest political catastrophe. France has turned from the starting point of the European crisis into the waning point of liberal post-Christian Western civilisation: endless protests, yellow vests, police violence, strikes amid a contradictory foreign policy.

Macron symbolises cataclysms, fire and turmoil

Rather, the complete absence of foreign policy guidelines, which manifested itself in permanent antagonism with Washington and London, lyrical curtsies towards Russia and equally dramatic retreats from the Kremlin. Macron will be remembered as the most slippery and inconsistent president in French history. For the entire period of his rule, Macron was constant only in his blatant hostility to Turkey. That has recently been extrapolated to Azerbaijan. None of the French presidents, except perhaps Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau, have shown such keen sensitivity to the long-standing Armenian issue. As if Macron draws the theses from the diary of Minister Waddington from the Berlin Congress, where for the first time the Armenian question was developed for the surviving and reborn 'sick man of Europe.'

But today France itself looks sick. Which does not care about either international law, or UN resolutions, or decisions of the European Parliament, or the consolidated opinion of the European Union on the issue of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. France perceives the change in the status quo in Karabakh as a personal challenge and infringement of its own interests. So after all, Macron himself has repeatedly asked the Russian president to intervene, to sort out the situation and stop the war with all the means in the Kremlin's arsenal. Macron called Putin even more often than Pashinyan. And thanks to Russia in Karabakh, the most dangerous scenario for the Armenians and Macron was suspended. Azerbaijani troops stopped in the vicinity of Khankendi. Moreover, Prime Minister Pashinyan himself accepted surrender obligations, fulfilling all the UN Security Council resolutions and admitting defeat on the battlefield. The war has stopped, and the ceasefire, judging by the assessment of the peacekeepers-observers, is respected by both sides, there are no more casualties, Putin is busy mobilising efforts for the humanitarian revival of the region. What could Macron be unhappy with? Peace has reigned!

A game against Putin and Erdogan? Let people die!

According to diplomatic sources, the French government is trying its best to derail the agreement of the three heads of state. Initially, Le Drian tried to convene the Minsk Group to stop the entry of Russian peacekeepers. And invalidate the agreement! It is incomprehensible to the mind, but France, the peace mediator and co-chair of the Minsk Group, actually opposed the peace agreement and advocates its denunciation. That is, by and large, France is in solidarity with the war party in Armenia, demanding the resignation of Pashinyan and the resumption of hostilities. But an attempt by France to revise the Aliyev-Putin-Pashinyan pact met with resistance from the rest of the group. France was covertly supported only by the US government.

On the eve, France made a second attempt to disrupt the ceasefire. Paris appealed to NATO to condemn and reject the Moscow Agreement. According to competent diplomatic sources, NATO took the French government's initiative with great surprise, since both the NATO Secretariat and the leading member states of the bloc have repeatedly called on Azerbaijan and Armenia to stop hostilities and conclude a truce.

NATO wants war?

Let's imagine that NATO accepts the proposal of the French government and opposes the Moscow agreement. The alternative to the three president's pact is war. What do Macron and NATO propose? For Azerbaijan to resume the war? And this in the light of the statements of the heads of the Armenian military department - the minister of defence and the chief of the General Staff about the complete failure of the destroyed Armenian army?! Is France not aware of all the consequences of its destructive policy - how will the world community perceive Macron's initiatives and actions?! It turns out that, proceeding from the alleged flawed ambitions of the failed empire, the entire regional security system in the Caucasus is under attack?! Only because Macron's ambitions are not satisfied. You see, the laurels of the winners went to the inconvenient Putin and the hated Erdogan. It is difficult to imagine what final decision will be reached in Brussels, but part of the Moscow agreement has already been implemented. Armenian troops liberate the occupation zone, the Azerbaijani Army is established in new combat positions, refugees are returning to Karabakh...

With a great deal of scepticism, one can believe in the possibility of making some decision or statement by NATO. But Macron covered himself with indelible shame. Macron put himself on a par with the renegade Dashnaks with a terrorist bomb, who long for a new revanchist war...

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