Our Analytics 16 july — 12:38

Fragile situation in Karabakh: Everything can break down at any hour...



Towards the evening of July 15, Armenian troops continued indiscriminate shelling of Azerbaijani positions. This time, the targets of the Armenian military were the positions of Azerbaijani units in the Kalbajar district, liberated in accordance with the act of surrender of November 10. Today and yesterday they fired at Shusha. Prior to that, shelling was conducted on the Nakhchivan section of the conditional front line.

The Armenian military is increasingly reminiscent of the mythical Lernaean hydra, but not the snake-like monster described by the ancient Greeks, but the other - a dwarf, many-headed snake. And it seems that the valiant Azerbaijani troops will have to repeat the Hercules feat of November 2020, chopping off the remaining heads of the snake with a poisonous breath. Only this time it will be necessary to follow the advice of Iolaus and burn the severed heads. In order for them not to rise from the ashes. Like now. In this difficult situation, the Azerbaijani government may consider the possibility of conducting a new counter-terrorist operation, akin to the one carried out in Hadrut immediately after the end of the war.

Armenian troops shoot at Nakhchivan, Shusha and Kalbajar

Pashinyan's government has chosen a new strategy for relations with Azerbaijan: Yerevan deliberately aggravates the situation on the conditional line of contact between Azerbaijani troops and the Russian peacekeeping contingent. Apparently, Armenia pursues a single goal - to show the world community the bankruptcy and ineffectiveness of the Russian peacekeepers deployed in the region. This is not only a dirty insinuation against Azerbaijan, but also a well-thought-out provocation against the Kremlin. Pashinyan strikes a blow at the reputation of the Russian peacekeeping forces. Say, the Russian troops are not coping with the imposed mission of preserving the order established after the peace agreement.

Sabotage and indiscriminate shooting at Azerbaijani positions take place on the eve of the first visit to the region of the President of the European Council Charles Michel. What does Pashinyan want to say with this? Even shortly before the parliamentary elections, Pashinyan persistently proposed the implementation of a new format of a peacekeeping contingent with the participation of NATO troops along with Russian troops, in particular the armed forces of the co-chairing countries, the United States and France, who remained outside the process. Pashinyan's initiative has caused strong irritation in the Kremlin and favourable understanding in the West. As if Pashinyan wants to demonstrate to the world community the failure of the erected Russian peacekeeping cordon, which cannot cope with the localisation of the situation.

Shots are being fired in Shusha and Kalbajar, while French Foreign Minister Le Drian and the US Secretary of State are actively consulting 'on the need to strengthen a lasting peace in Karabakh.' This quote from world agencies has spread over the editorials of Armenian propaganda.

Pashinyan wants to drag the collective West into a 'new game'

Western diplomats bring the fragility and explosiveness of the situation to the fore. Carefully emphasising that Russia cannot cope in splendid isolation. A few days later, Charles Michel will also join the western choir. His loud statements about the sword of Damocles hanging over the region will certainly follow.

As if by order Pashinyan dramatises the situation, deepening the confrontation and involving the collective West in the provoked conflict. Russia is closely following the development of events, but it also does not prevent provocations from the Armenian side. How likely is the coordination of Russia's actions with the other two co-chairs? Although everything is possible in politics, and even more so in big politics, however, the Kremlin is hardly interested in the active involvement of the Western community in the regional process. After the resounding defeat of pro-Russian forces in the recent parliamentary elections in Armenia, the Kremlin's position in Yerevan has become even more vulnerable. By and large, Russia has nothing left in Armenia except the presence of the armed forces and special services, that is, the 'power bloc.' Excluding the small group of deputies-saboteurs of Kocharyan in parliament, which has lost leverage and influence. Russia can only wait and watch.

Meanwhile, the collective West through Pashinyan is actively advancing, provoking Azerbaijan to retaliate and preventative actions. Armenia is well aware that the only chance for the resumption of the activities of the Minsk Group is to stage military operations. Breaking the fragile ceasefire could derail the implementation of the Trilateral Agreement and culminate in a new peace conference with new mediation mandates. What Le Drian and Blinken are actively hinting at. Apparently, in Baku, too, they suspect of an insidious plan and therefore retain restraint and composure. Ankara is also showing severe patience. Neither Aliyev nor Erdogan have yet spoken out about the violation of the ceasefire. The Russian-Turkish monitoring centre in Agdam is also cautiously silent.

Meanwhile, Macron is hurrying to Yerevan with new statements and ultimatums. A fragile situation. Everything can break down at any hour...

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