News 7 december — 14:00

Will Azerbaijan quarrel with Iran? (Shadow CIA forecast)



December is the last month of the year when they sum up and forecast for the future. So the American intelligence and analytical agency Stratfor did not break the tradition, promulgating a forecast for 2019, in which there is a mention of Azerbaijan.

Azeri Daily editorial staff presents an excerpt from the report, which became available to the editors.

American analysts predict that competition between the great powers will only intensify next year. The United States will continue to pressure China through sanctions, increased tariffs on Chinese products, support for Taiwan and tougher actions in the South China Sea (in this area are the islands claimed by China and some other regional states - Ed).

The arms race between the United States, Russia and China will increase, and the states trying to balance between the centres of power, such as Turkey, India and Vietnam, will face problems.

Geopolitical risk for business will increase. The United States will stake on Europe, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and Taiwan to build barriers to Chinese investment. This will affect research and commerce in strategic areas, from artificial intelligence to deployment of 5G networks. Cyber threats for corporations are rising.

Stratfor predicts that the trade negotiations of the European Union with the United States will be doomed to failure. Moreover, because of the populist government of Italy in 2019 there will be a serious threat to the entire eurozone.

A separate and very important point concerns the anti-Iranian campaign, which the US will continue.

'The United States intends to promote its campaign to isolate Iran at the regional level and weaken the country from within. This will increase friction between Washington and Tehran and reduce the already meagre likelihood of constructive negotiations,' analysts write.

At the same time, relations between Azerbaijan and Iran can be quite tense, since, according to Washington, Baku will be inclined to the US strategy to contain Iran.

A common anti-Iranian agenda will help smooth out tensions between the United States and Saudi Arabia caused by dissatisfaction with the actions of Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia and Russia will closely monitor oil production to prevent the fall in prices for 'black gold.' At the same time, there is potential for production growth in Iraq and Libya.

Shocks await the global markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the United States takes its place among the three largest LNG exporters in the world in 2019.

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