Caucasus Reality 18 june — 12:03

War in Karabakh is inevitable. Who has advantage? (Military expert Alexander Khramchikhin)

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BY AZERI DAILY MOSCOW BUREAU

'The aggravation of the situation on the contact line, the clashes are caused by the fact that this is the front line,' said in a conversation with Azeri Daily Alexander Khramchikhin, one of the leading Russian military experts, deputy director of the Russian Institute of Political and Military Analysis.

It should be reminded that the Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan issued a statement in connection with the events at the front, which says that units of the Armenian Armed Forces continue provocations on the contact line of the troops in the territory of occupied Nagorno-Karabakh. And while preventing them on June 15 and 16, six Armenian servicemen were killed.

The Armenian media are already actively discussing the possibilities of a retaliatory strike. In addition, in Yerevan they ask seriously: 'What can happen, if Azerbaijan declares its withdrawal from the negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group? Can the co-chairs of this group, in particular France and the United States, take some steps to curb Azerbaijan?' For example, the Yerevan edition of Lragir writes about this.

According to Khramchikhin, if the positions of the parties are irreconcilable, then war is inevitable. 'Before there were hundreds of ceasefire violations too, they will continue in the future,' said the expert.

As for who will have the advantage in the inevitable war, then everything depends on when it begins: 'We must take into account the balance of forces at each particular moment.'

If we talk about today, then, according to Khramchikhin, now Azerbaijan has absolute superiority in the air and a noticeable superiority on land.

'However, the Armenian side has good defensive positions. But Azerbaijan in April last year showed that it can achieve local success,' said the military expert.

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