Caucasus Reality 13 october — 13:32

Armenian experts in one voice: Victory belongs to Azerbaijan! (Our review)

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BY RAMIZ MAMMADOV, POLITICS SECTION

The issue of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict has been at the centre of public attention in Yerevan in recent days. Everyone is waiting for the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, which is expected to take place next week. At the same time, it is already obvious that Armenia understands the weakness of its position. And, first of all, it is about its army.

But first things first. The Yerevan edition of the 'First Informational' asks a question: 'Why does the Armenian side agree to the resumption of the talks? What do we (Armenia - Ed) have to give up? Has the Armenian side received any guarantees that Azerbaijan refuses form intending to resolve the issue by military methods?'

Apparently, the point is that Armenia is now as weak as ever. And even in Yerevan, they already doubt that Armenia controls its army.

'Iskander' MLRS for the parade

'We will not be surprised to learn one day that Iskanders existed only for demonstration at a military parade and did not even belong to the Armenian armed forces, and even if it belongs, it cannot be used without the approval of Moscow,' the Armenian media writes. They also note that Russia can control all military equipment sold to Armenia. We are talking about the agreement of 2013 on the development of military-technical cooperation between Armenia and Russia, the first article of which reads: 'Within the framework of the agreement, the supplier of military equipment has the right to control its availability and intended use, and the buyer must create all necessary conditions for this.'

Analyst of the same 'First Informational' Sargis Artsruni notes that Armenia will become an 'Abkhazia' with all the irreversible consequences.

Sargis Artsruni

'Since 1997, when the 'big Armenian-Russian agreement' was concluded, Armenia consistently yielded its sovereignty, and each time it seemed that there was nowhere to retreat. And every time we were wrong, because the iron logic of the empire operates in Moscow, and the Russian elite will never stop. It will take as much as possible, especially as the elite of today's Armenia - by its political and moral qualities, exclusively servile - is completely devoid of ideas about the subjectivity of the country and even about its own subjectivity,' the expert writes.

Against this background, the Jamestown Foundation publishes Eduard Abrahamyan's material on the new military doctrine of Armenia related to the confrontation with Azerbaijan over Karabakh.

Eduard Abrahamyan

Jamestown Foundation: Armenia will not get ahead of Baku

As Eduard Abrahamyan points out, 'the most important concern for Baku is the safety of its hydrocarbon infrastructure, which at present can be hit by Armenia's ballistic missiles. To this end, Azerbaijan has reportedly begun deployment of the Israeli anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence system 'Iron Dome' in Baku and Ganja to enhance the strategic security of the country's transport and other communications infrastructure.'

At the same time, Eduard Abrahamyan admits that although Azerbaijan announced a reduction of the military budget, and Armenia increased it, Yerevan will not be able to get ahead of Baku, even in the long term.

Abrahamyan believes that 'the Armenian rhetoric about the use of ballistic missiles Iskander-E for targeting Azerbaijan's oil and gas infrastructure' is designed for domestic consumption. 'In fact, it is unlikely that the Armenian side will risk damaging the Azerbaijani part of the trans-regional network, which is becoming increasingly important for the energy security of Europe.'

In turn, the head of the Republican Party of Armenia faction Vahram Baghdasaryan, responding to a question about the discussion of the Armenian-Russian agreement on the joint military grouping in the Armenian parliament, said that the agreement is beneficial for Armenia: 'It is possible to use the material and technical base and weapons of the other side in solving specific tasks. The next task concerns the appointment of the commander of the United Group - he is assigned by the Armenian side, as well as the commander of joint air defence. They have no right to use our airspace without our consent, to take any action without us.'

Vahram Baghdasaryan

But answering the question that the CSTO, in the days of the April 2016 battles, was not in a hurry to make statements, Baghdasaryan bluntly stated: 'You forget that Karabakh is not included in the CSTO zone of operation.'

What does this mean? The Armenian politician directly admitted that Karabakh has nothing to do with Armenia. And that the CSTO will not intercede for Armenia, if the fighting takes place on the internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan.

In its turn, 'Lragir' notes that Armenia surrenders everything to Russia. The edition quotes Aram Sargsyan, deputy of the Yelk faction, who, referring to the agreement on the Russian-Armenian Joint Group of Forces, noted that the Armenian Foreign Ministry votes in the international arena the same way as Russia, energy (Armenia's) is entirely Russian, property transferred to the account of 'debts,' security is 'provides' by the CSTO, the sky and communications are also in the hands of Russians.

'Why after this sign some agreements? This is an insulting agreement. How can you not trust your own powers to such an extent? Belarus, Kazakhstan and others did not sign such an agreement, because they put their sovereignty above all, believe in their armies. The impression is that there is a secret treaty, according to which Putin is appointed supreme commander in Armenia. Chechnya is freer than Armenia,' he said.

But ex-deputy of the Armenian parliament Azat Arshakyan said that Russia will soon be on its knees.

Azat Arshakyan

Arshakyan's quote: 'Russia cannot conquer us, this does not threaten us. Let them carry weapons to Armenia, build nuclear power plants - they will leave it all and leave. They cannot declare war on Armenia. They would like to hand over Karabakh to Azerbaijan, but they cannot do this either, Russia did not give us Karabakh - we won it ourselves. Russia cannot capture Armenia and give Karabakh to Azerbaijan, because more powerful forces do not allow it. The US and Europe are stronger, Russia will soon be on its knees, and it did not rise from its knees anyway.'

Former Prime Minister Aram Sargsyan said that it would soon be found out that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Artmenia is the Russian President Vladimir Putin. '...Armenia is becoming a part of Russia, we shall hope only that the Turks suddenly don't attack us. And when I say that it's insulting, people are offended.'

Aram Sargsyan

Well, the Chief of the Joint Staff of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation Colonel-General Anatoly Sidorov drove the last nail into the 'coffin' at a press conference in Yerevan.

Answering the question about arms deliveries to Azerbaijan, he noted: 'There is a Russian saying 'a holy place is never empty.' If they are set up to purchase weapons, then they will have it,' said Colonel-General Sidorov.

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