Caucasus Reality 17 may — 09:13

Azerbaijan with Russia, Armenia with the West (Armenian analytics)



Despite the fact that the political crisis in Armenia (at least for now) has declined, and the new Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan even participated in the meeting of the leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union, anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia and the diaspora continue to flare up.

It is obvious that very few people believed the words of Nikol Pashinyan that Yerevan will adhere to the previous course aimed at good-neighbourliness with Russia. Russian politicians do not believe this. It's enough to look at the statement of Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky, which Azeri Daily has already reported about.


Two Armenian analysts, Eduard Abrahamyan (military expert and researcher at Leicester University) and Movses Ter-Hogannesyan (an expert at the Eurasian Scientific and Analytical Institute) published joint material in the influential publication The National Interest, in which they said that the ongoing political crisis in Armenia still provides 'a unique opportunity for Russia and Azerbaijan to achieve territorial gains with the help of force.'

They are talking about the return of the Azerbaijani regions occupied by the Armenian armed forces.

In the opinion of Abrahamyan and Ter-Hogannesyan, Russia uses the 'military threat' coming from Azerbaijan among the main levers of influence on Armenia.

'As Azerbaijan became rich and powerful, its relations with Russia improved. Russian President Vladimir Putin has become increasingly willing to trade with powerful Azerbaijan at the expense of Armenia, in fact abandoning his traditional alliance with Armenia,' Armenian analysts said.

In their opinion, the expelled Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan was one of the defenders of the pro-Russian position of Armenia. However, due to economic problems and Azerbaijan's support for Russia, as experts say, Sargsyan's image was destroyed. To this can be added the military defeat of Armenia in April 2016.

'The Armenian authorities many times repeated that the Armenian side won, because the Azerbaijani offensive did not reach its supposed military goals... However, any loss of land cannot be considered a victory,' the authors of the article note.

According to their layouts, since 2010, Russia has sold weapons and military equipment to Azerbaijan for up to five billion dollars. At the same time, Moscow seemed to be delaying the sale of weapons to the Armenian side. True, Ter-Hogannesyan and Abrahamyan forgot to mention that Russian weapons are supplied to Armenia either for free or on credit. And Azerbaijan pays 'live' money.

The conclusion made by Armenian analysts: 'Azerbaijan continues to deepen its alliance with Russia.' Moreover, they note that the West should warn Azerbaijan against joint actions with Russia to cancel the results of the 'colour revolution' in Armenia, as a result of which Nikol Pashinyan came to power.

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