Caucasus Reality 10 june — 12:13

Israeli political scientist: 'Sargsyan received offer, which he couldn't refuse'



For now, in the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, the threat of resuming hostilities comes more from Yerevan than from Baku, Israeli political scientist Yury Bocharov said in an interview with Azeri Daily.

'I'm not sure that right now Azerbaijan will unleash a war. It is clearly not in its interests, and we should not forget that there is simply nothing to lose for the other side, but there is for Baku. Most likely the war will be provoked by the opposite side, because in principle, this is the only option today to bring down the heat of passion. When 'Motherland is in danger,' they do not talk about democracy and bread,' said the political scientist, commenting on the conclusion of the International Crisis Group that the unstable situation in Armenia could provoke a new escalation of the confrontation in Karabakh.

Bocharov does not exclude that today's protests in Khankendi are caused by the April confrontation in Armenia, which removed Serzh Sargsyan from the post of the head of state and contributed to the coming to power in the country of Nikola Pashinyan.

'Around Nagorno-Karabakh, and in it too, there are so many problems and contradictions that it's hard to say which one tore off the lid from this long-seething boiler. The catalyst could have been another boorish escapade of the security services, and events in Yerevan as well. After all, as the poets said, 'the intoxicating air of the revolution' always carries hopes for cardinal changes, and the ordinary people are waiting for them for a long time,' he stressed.

According to the expert, the 'Armenian revolution' represents 'American games in the struggle for influence in the region.'

'And it can be noted that they have won the first round over both Russia and the Armenian government mafia. But as you know, no one will just give up their 'own' in this region. So the events here are just beginning,' said Yury Bocharov.

He admitted that today's confrontations in Nagorno-Karabakh could benefit Pashinyan in the fight against the supporters of former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan.

'Now there are too many players on the Armenian court and too many offended, from all sides. At the same time, the events in Karabakh can play into the hands of Pashinyan in his struggle against the Sargsyan clan, and he will be able to shift the entire Karabakh leadership with the help of 'popular anger.' On the other hand, no one knows under whose influence (or rather, under whose financing) is this 'popular unrest,' and for what will they eventually vote and who will be called to the throne!' said the political scientist.

He also shared the fears of former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who believes that the resignation of the leadership of the power structures of the separatist regime of Nagorno-Karabakh under the pressure of the popular masses can seriously threaten the security of the territories occupied by Armenia.

'All the revolutions of recent years in the region, in the Arab countries, have shown that the 'popular' anger not stopped on time can displace any government and at the same time ruin any country at the same time. So these fears are not in vain. We do not yet know who else is playing on the side of the people and for what purpose,' Bocharov emphasised.

He also called predictable the decision of a number of Armenian MPs to leave the parliamentary faction of the ex-ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA).

'Big business always and everywhere pursues only one goal: strengthening of its wealth and power by any means. I think that many of the businessmen just for this purpose were in the party. Today this party, the RPA, is in disgrace, and therefore it is necessary to stay away from it and negotiate with the new 'master' of the country, or, most likely, with his patrons,' said the political scientist.

'Sargsyan's fate, I think, was predetermined the night before he publicly apologised and resigned. Apparently, he either received guarantees, or serious warnings about the future of his foreign assets and assets of his family. As they say in the movies about the mafia, 'they made him an offer, which cannot be refused!' said Yuri Bocharov.

According to him, today it is difficult to predict the progress towards the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

'We do not yet know who is the true 'new' leader of Armenia, and with whom, in fact, one must negotiate. The fact that Pashinyan is a new representative of the new players is clear, but what these new players want is not yet clear. So there's no one to speak to yet,' he said.

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