Our Analytics 31 may — 18:45

Ilham Aliyev's second breath (Mission possible)



In terms of his political longevity, genuine political instinct and the art of adapting to the new international situation, Ilham Aliyev is in no way inferior to such recognised masters of power as Netanyahu, Erdogan, Nazarbayev, Merkel, Putin... As a rule, in the second decade of active rule or unrestrained, raging struggle of a politician comes the end of his career. Especially if a politician stands at the helm of power almost unchanged or retreats only for a short time. A person gets tired of power, its burdens and weight, just like the people get tired of irreplaceable, even the most progressive and rational government. With any government, even if conscience and service to people remain its tuning fork.

Even before presidency, at the very beginning of his political career, Ilham Aliyev announced his main mission - the return of Karabakh

But this axiom of established social psychology in the relation 'people - leader' is difficult to attribute to politicians who, by their motives and influence, set in motion whole historical processes. History is made by politicians. And peoples are the creation of political eras. But here the great Russian Marxist thinker Plekhanov comes to an important theoretical conclusion: the people created by the era laid down by a politician are themselves the creators of a new era.

This theoretical approach fits into the logic of events preceding the great success of Ilham Aliyev in the Second Karabakh War. In one of his speeches after the end of the war, the Azerbaijani leader himself states that the achievement of the national dream - the liberation of Karabakh - happened at the cost of blood, heroism and self-sacrifice of the generation, in the political sense, born from the era of his rule. This is the generation born in Aliyev's time.

The formula of historical regularity: historical conditions - historical need - the interaction of the individual with the historical process. The politician who has taken on the mission of the historical process is perceived not in the plane of a separate period of time, the principles of the change of power, the natural political struggle in society. After all, the influence of an individual on the historical process is also determined by his personal qualities, talents and abilities, which so eloquently and vividly manifested itself in the revival of the superpower of Russia during the rule of Putin, or on the example of the Turkish political renaissance in the Big East in the era of Erdogan. And how can you not point to the example of the people of Israel with its rich experience of liberal and democratic conquests: Netanyahu personifies the systemic stability and inviolability of Israel's defence capability in a difficult time in the difficult Middle East. Trump was also motivated by these motives, urging Americans to extend his presidency. But what happened happened - the new government interrupted the historical process, undermined the Abrahamic Accords, the war again knocked on the doors of the Middle East. And Saakashvili, whose geopolitical revolution was drowned in its culmination?

Children of Aliyev's time died, but they won

Does the dominance of one personality over the historical process contradict the values ​​of popular will that are inseparable from modern society? Certainly not, because the historical process is born of the will of the people themselves. For a quarter of a century, the idea of ​​the return of Karabakh was the highest meaning of the state's existence and social development in Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev successfully completed the historical process, laying the foundation for a new era - the consolidation of victory, the great return of Azerbaijanis and the revival of Karabakh from the ruins. Aliyev himself embodies a new historical era, which is reflected in the ideas of Armenian political thought itself. 'Only after Aliyev’s removal can we count on the return of Karabakh,' Aram Gabrelyanov says angrily, admitting his own impotence. Another prominent representative of Armenian political thought, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, calls the transition to a parliamentary form of government, the frequent change of power in Armenia, a harbinger of the collapse of Armenian expansionism. Who knows how history would have turned if Kocharyan had remained in power or if Sargsyan had not switched to a parliamentary model of government? This reinforces in modern conditions the theory of the role of the individual in fateful times, at a historical crossroads. Until the completion of the historical process.

The boundless joy of Ilham Aliyev, inspired by the fulfilled mission, inspires him. As if the Azerbaijani President is in a hurry and is afraid to be late. He values ​​every hour, every minute of his time. He realises that the final part of his epochal mission has come. Indeed, after the return of Karabakh, a difficult peace will have to be concluded with the formerly hostile Armenia, and there is still a large, hitherto unthinkable construction, the opening of the Zangezur corridor. At the same time, Ilham Aliyev is confronting the consequences of a ruthless pandemic - after all, huge damage has been done to the country's economy, he leaves one meeting with ministers and aides to start discussing problems with other officials. At the same time, suppressing the inescapable bureaucratic instinct in his government.

He hurries to Shusha to share the joy of the first festival in the citadel of Azerbaijani culture. But he does not return with everyone to Baku, but leaves Karabakh for Gabala. The pandemic is raging, the incomes of the population are falling. And he opens new businesses to provide his people with daily bread.

Ilham Aliyev completed the first mission with honour. Ilham Aliyev's second breath is opening...

On 28 May, Ilham Aliyev was in Aghdam. The first meeting with the public of the second capital of Karabakh awaited him. Then a discussion of the general plan of the city. He is laying a new road from Barda to Aghdam. He hurries to the place where the school will be restored. He must definitely visit the construction site of the first school, and the first residential building, and the industrial park... Aliyev must also look at the palace of the Karabakh khan in Aghdam, destroyed by the Armenians. He gives the order: to restore! Here, in Aghdam, turned into a city of ghosts, Ilham Aliyev lays the first stone in the foundation of a new museum - a museum of memory. The people should remember about history. To avoid the curse of the past... And the President is in a hurry to Baku. A meeting with the ministers is scheduled late in the evening. The reports of the closest assistants will also be heard.

In the early morning of 29 May, Ilham Aliyev is in his office! After listening to the reports of the head of government and security officials, at 8:30am the President leaves for the opening of new administrative buildings. Yes, with his thoughts he is still there, in Aghdam, in parallel reflecting on the urgent negotiations on the Zangezur corridor, but now he needs to switch to Baku. Aliyev at the opening of the Surakhani court and, taking this opportunity, asks the Minister of Justice about legal reforms. He is interested in one thing: what is the reaction to complaints from people?

Aliyev is already intently and scrupulously examining all the floors of the new building of the Ministry of Economy.

And he has yet to open a new metro station '8 November.' In honour of the victory, his great victory, the achievement of the innermost dream about Shusha - the mother of Azerbaijani cities. A smile crossed his face. Aliyev is still under the impression of Azerbaijani mugham at ancient Jidir Plain at the edge of a dizzying abyss... It was some dizzying day with a sweet sense of victory. Yes, yes, he saved his people, who stood on the verge of the same abyss.

A sense of fulfilled historical duty dispels light fatigue. Ahead is a meeting with Turkish Minister Karaismailoglu. Aliyev will talk about the success in the negotiations on the Zangezur corridor. He approached the threshold of a new historical mission. This is his phenomenon, a second breath.

A new struggle is at stake. And he must win. However, Ilham Aliyev cannot do otherwise.

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