Our Analytics 6 january — 11:34

Nazarbayev, Karimli and Hajiyeva... (Kazakhstan in distorted mirror of Azerbaijani Facebook)



Contemporary political scientists and future historians will be puzzling over the ontology of the Kazakhstani 'popular uprising' for a long time. The hunger riot as the highest point of the bifurcation of the political system in the era of corona-crisis -- the critical state of a sickly state organism -- at the very beginning resembled a colour revolution popular in the post-Soviet space and in the Arab countries. After all, the crowd went against the government! But unlike the post-Soviet revolutions, the vanguard of the movement lacked the driving force of a revolution -- a political organisation. No authoritative leaders appeared either at the head or among the crowd.

In Georgia there was Saakashvili with Burjanadze, in Ukraine -- Yushchenko with Tymoshenko, in Kyrgyzstan -- Roza Otumbayeva with Felix Kulov, in Moldova -- Morar with Bagirov... But in Kazakhstan, the hungry crowd, armed with revolutionary slogans and curses, for some reason remained without a leader. In the political desert of Nazarbayev's Kazakhstan, it is incredibly difficult to spot an opposition leader even under a magnifying glass. Beginning with Kazhegeldin and ending with Ablyazov, all the home-grown dissents from the very first days of Nazarbayev's 30-year rule fled to the West. Some survived, but such protesters as the former son-in-law of the Kazakh leader were unable to find salvation even in a solitary confinement cell of a Vienna prison.

Nazarbayev combined in himself several eras, but his time has passed inexorably

To a certain extent, the so-called opposition leaders in Kazakhstan from decade to decade continued their activities with one secret thought -- to compete with the leader of the nation in the new presidential election. And these leaders acted more in the role of apologists for the government than its competitors. There was no place to expect good changes until Nazarbayev, who crossed the threshold of his 80th birthday, appointed his successor. The polite and pedantic head of Nazarbayev's diplomacy with a Russian diploma, the harmless Tokayev, made the velvet transit of power.

The vacuum of the political system was filled by tandemocracy. But under the supervision of Nazarbayev himself, who in 30 years has organically merged with the very institution of power. Tokayev was left with only the representative functions of the Nazarbayev power. Since ancient times, there has been a complex clan structure in Kazakhstan, expressed in contradictions and in counterbalances to the zhuzes (tribes). The leader had to always be able not only to manage, but also to manoeuvre between the clans -- Tore, Khoja and Tolengits. In addition, it was necessary to take into account the interests of the middle zhuz - the Naimans, who took root in the elite of the security forces... Nazarbayev not only understood and controlled this difficult mechanism, but also learned to intuitively feel it, gradually blurring the boundaries between zhuzes, unifying them into a single and indivisible Kazakh nation.

Nazarbayev did not just let Tokayev to temporary rule. The leader of the nation perceived his nurtured successor as the future leader of the nation. Future, but not real and today. Nazarbayev was gradually torn away from power, turning into a symbolic monument of the paternalistic Kazakhstani state. It would seem that nothing threatened the peaceful and stable existence of the Kazakh authorities. Moreover, in the international arena, as well as in regional politics, the inspirer of the Eurasian idea has always played by concepts and rules. And taught by the bitter Almaty uprising of the times of the dissolute Gorbachev glasnost, on the wave of which Nazarbayev managed to break into power by displacing the great-power Kolbin, the national leader easily coped with any manifestations of political illness and social protest. The Naimans with cruelty suppressed any protest in the bud...

Nazarbayev was the power, and Tokayev was its representative function

And suddenly the declassified motley crowd, violating the canons of the theory of organising a revolution tested by history, challenges the established Nazarbayev regime, demanding the resignation of the leader, who in the Kazakhs' view was the power itself. No, it doesn't work that way! Although, critics may argue with an unprecedented example of the Arab Spring -- an uprising of disaffected and unruly popular masses that challenged half a century rulers. Strikingly, the protests in Kazakhstan, and even in the second capital, Almaty, did not impress with their massiveness.

It was a different picture, not the one we saw in Kyiv, Tbilisi and Yerevan... The largest action in Almaty gathered no more than 10-15 thousand people. In the past, after each presidential election, Nazarbayev usually managed to easily disperse the demonstrations of the passionate part of society. But this time Nazarbayev's hand trembled. Something stopped one of the most experienced masters of power in the post-Soviet space to stop and drown out the protest. Why did Nazarbayev take a step back and retreat in front of the distraught and not so numerous wild elements?

The master of Nur-Sultan, the Kazakh lion, could have been stopped by the understanding and awareness of two factors. Rejecting the conspiracy theories favourite among the amateur community, the most experienced politician with grandiose state thinking and incredible instinct could be stopped by the understanding that the main regional power in the person of the leading power, Russia, turned away from him and no longer sees him among it allies. And the second, no less significant factor is the split of the Kazakhstani elite. Most of the elite, apparently, caught the glance of the owner of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, who had settled on Tokayev. And Tokayev, apparently, caught this glance.

Nazarbayev did not have a chance to manoeuvre on the field where another lion, the Uzbek ruler Islam Karimov, felt so comfortable. In the fat 2000s, in the very years when Russia got up from its knees, Karimov successfully flirted with the Americans, providing the territory of his country for US military bases. And under a strange coincidence in protest Andijan, he could afford to open fire on protesters from cannons and mortars. He understood that he had a field for manoeuvres -- to expel the American troops and let the Russians in again. Nazarbayev has exhausted all his limits. In addition, after the deafening failure of the Americans in Afghanistan and their shameful flight, Nazarbayev could only count on the help of Erdogan, who is waging an unequal fight against the devaluation of the Turkish lira... There was no wall behind Nazarbayev's back -- there was only emptiness.

Karimov was lucky, but Nazarbayev was not. He has no room to manoeuvre

His time has passed. Elbasy's deep analytical mind, strategic vision and grandiose life experience saved Kazakhstan from a big fire. Only his long-awaited and belated departure could transform the protesting rebels into terrorists and marauders. Nazarbayev resigned from power and left the country along with his family and zhuz. Leaving power to the predictable Tokayev, who immediately fulfilled the supreme will. The new sole ruler of Kazakhstan called on Russian troops to his country to fight terrorists.

In a matter of hours, Kazakhstan began to return to a measured, peaceful life. And the peace of the country is threatened only by mythological terrorists who robbed shops with traumatic weapons in a residential area of ​​Almaty... Tokayev will stay in Akorda. Rather, he will be helped stay and gain a foothold by the sharp bayonets of fraternal international assistance...

In this whole sad story, which opened a new path to expanding the integration of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, the most instructive for Azerbaijan was the tragicomic attempt of the opposition leaders Ali Karimli and Gultekin Hajiyeva to involve the Azerbaijani protest electorate in the 'colour revolution' in Kazakhstan. Any revolution, whether in Sudan, Tunisia, Venezuela or Egypt, plays out the inflamed imaginations of our dissidents, who have stuck in the post-Soviet kitchen from time immemorial. For many years, the opposition figures, who have lost their minds from hostility to the authorities, have been cultivating an unprecedented scenario of the fall of power.

Karimli and Gultekin, overwhelmed with delight and disappointment

Drawing the attention of an online audience to revolutions, uprisings and coups from the time of Simón Bolívar to Nicolás Maduro, causing insanity, these figures of a faded colour revolution from their communal apartments urge people to join the Sudanese, Tunisians, Venezuelans and even Egyptians, to make a mad impulse and rebel against the authorities. In the minds of these poor and aged ideologues of the revolution, Azerbaijanis today should have become like Kazakhstani insurgents, that is, terrorists. They are not interested in motives and aspirations. The main thing is a large crowd of people who will be united by their hatred of power. This is in their subconsciousness the manifestation and victory of the revolutionary cause...

After the resignation of Nazarbayev, Karimli and Hajiyev announced the victory of the revolution in Kazakhstan. They glorified Tokayev, pleading with him to leave the office and join the victorious people, who, they say, rid the country of Nazarbayev. Imagine the sincere amazement and indignation of the father and mother of Azerbaijani democracy after Tokayev's appeal to the CSTO with a request to send troops. Until early morning, Karimli and Hajiyev asked Nazarbayev to return to Kazakhstan and stand in the path of the Russian troops. Nazarbayev, of course, did not hear them and rejected that plea. It's both funny and sad!

In Azerbaijan, they did not understand the true essence of the events that took place in Kazakhstan. The network crowd enthusiastically greeted the news of Nazarbayev's dismissal, glorified and then cursed the descendants of the Chingizids, with despair turned away from Kazakhstan with the longed-for thought of a new revolution in Turkmenistan... This is how Kazakhstan looked in the distorted mirror of the notorious Azerbaijani public opinion.

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