News 4 may — 11:52

US Defence Intelligence Agency: Russia avoided direct intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh

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BY INFORMAION SCTION

US Defence Intelligence Agency (part of the US Department of Defence) has prepared a report on global threats in 2021 for Senate hearings. It has been published on the website of the Senate Armed Forces Committee, Azeri Daily reports.

The report focuses on the threats posed by China and Russia to the United States and its allies.

The reports says that the world is 'in an era of strategic competition. The United States faces challenges from competitors who are developing capabilities intended to challenge, limit, or exceed U.S. military advantage. These state and nonstate actors not only are developing such capabilities but also are selectively putting them into play globally and regionally... China and Russia, in particular, are pressing ahead with advances in space and counterspace capabilities and using cyberspace to increase their operational reach into U.S. infrastructure. They are also using the COVID-19 environment to conduct information warfare to undermine Western governments, attack Coalitions and compel economic and political outcomes in their favor. Iran and North Korea seek to expand military capabilities and further their regional goals to threaten the United States and its allies...'

'The Russian military is an existential threat to the United States and a potent tool designed to maintain influence over the states along its periphery, compete with U.S. global primacy, and compel adversaries who challenge Russia’s vital national interests. Moscow continues to invest in its strategic nuclear forces, in new capabilities to enhance its strategic deterrent and that place the U.S. homeland at risk, and in capabilities that improve its conventional warfighting. The Kremlin’s military strength is built on its survivable strategic nuclear forces and a conventional force largely postured for defensive and regional operations. Russia has a growing ability to project power with long-range precision cruise missiles and limited expeditionary capabilities. Military leaders are incorporating lessons from Russia’s involvement in Syria into their training and exercises as they seek to develop a better-coordinated, joint force,' says the report, in particular.

The reports also touches upon the last year's 44 day war in Karabakh: 'The Kremlin’s need to remain the preponderant security provider in what it calls the “near abroad” has probably grown as Moscow’s economic hold over the region becomes more precarious in the face of external actors with greater financial resources, such as China. However, Georgian, Ukrainian, and Azerbaijani security cooperation with NATO partners and other external backers reflects an increasingly challenging environment for Russia to exert security dominance. Furthermore, Moscow’s decisions to avoid direct intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and a limited response to the mass protests in 17 Belarus, suggest the Kremlin is evolving its tactics for maintaining control in the former Soviet space in response to increased attempts by outside parties such as China, the West and Turkey to gain influence in the region. The Russian-brokered ceasefire brought an end to the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, while also strengthening Russia's military and economic influence in the region. There are now troops on the ground in all three countries in the South Caucasus and Russia is likely to benefit from and continue to exert influence through the opening of transportation and communication ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In both the South Caucasus and Central Asia ensuring its primacy probably will depend on a mix of dominating the regional arms trade market, reinforcing existing bilateral military ties, advancing regional security integration, and offering modest accommodation to external security actors on Moscow’s terms.'

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