Caucasus Reality 25 november — 11:35

Arkady Dubnov: Russia won't help Armenia. Azerbaijan is no less important and dear to Moscow



Arkady Dubnov, a Russian political scientist and a renowned expert on the CIS countries, believes that after the defeat in the war, Karabakh ceased to be a cornerstone topic for Armenia, which is increasingly in a state of frustration. In his words, Russia cannot be Armenia's guarantor against Azerbaijan, and European countries will not help the Armenians either.

Arkady Dubnov

'Today, Armenia, as a country that has lost the 44-day war, continues to be in suffering and deepens into it even more,' Dubnov says on the air of the radio Echo of Moscow. 'The unification of Karabakh with Armenia, a unified Armenian state was an obsession. For better or worse, this united the Armenian nation in the second half of the last century. And now it is actually disavowed. In fact, there is no Karabakh for Armenia. Karabakh has ceased to be a cross-cutting theme of the Armenian discourse. There is no such idea within the Armenian discourse, and the country is in a state of frustration. Because it is confused, because what remains of Karabakh is the part that remained under the Russian protectorate, under the control of Russian peacekeepers. And this is categorically called into question by Azerbaijan, because the main thesis of Baku today: the question of the status of Karabakh no longer exists. We have solved the problem. Karabakh will be part of Azerbaijan.

'I think that the Azerbaijani army training was powerful enough in itself. And most importantly, the Armenians were not ready for it. The Armenians, of course, lull themselves with the fact that they are warlike in spirit and this spirit will never be broken.'

The expert believes that the words that Russia is the main guarantor of Armenia's independence, sovereignty and inviolability turned out to be untrue.

'Russia is a historical guarantor, but this has long ceased to be a reality. Just because Russia was basically not a guarantor against Azerbaijan, it was a guarantor against, in principle, confrontation with the Turkish world. Just with the Turks, just with the heterodox people. Today Russia is in a state of a completely different trend. Such a neo-imperial trend.

'Therefore, today Russia will not risk losing what it can still gain. And it can lose its peacekeepers in four years. If it actively supports Armenia.'

According to Arkady Dubnov, Europe cannot help Armenia either.

'Let's call a spade a spade. Which Europe will help Armenia in the fight against the Turkic world? With the surrounding Azerbaijan and Turkey. Well, what kind of Europe?'

Speaking about the upcoming trilateral meeting in Sochi with the participation of the Presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and the Prime Minister of Armenia, the Russian political scientist noted that 'Putin should not let the peace-making initiative fall into European hands.'

'Russia cannot afford to stand up for Armenia as its military ally in the fight against Azerbaijan. Because Azerbaijan is not less important and dear for Russia today. Meaning future neo-imperial policy. So it is not necessary in Armenia to proceed from the hopes on Russia.'

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